Multiregional IO Model: Baseline Scenario and Accuracy // Ksenia Savchishina

Ksenia Savchishina — IEF RAS, Russia

Main idea: Checking of accuracy of forecast results

For reference: K. Savchishina. Multiregional I-O Model: Baseline Scenario and Checking of Results Accuracy. 5 September 2019. Russia, Sochi, 27th Inforum Conference, URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/multiregional-i-o-model/

Link: https://ecfor.ru/publication/multiregional-i-o-model/

Conclusions

• Multilevel system of the regional development allows obtaining the forecasts development for each of the federal districts and regions balanced at all levels

• Complexity of model system gave us the idea to check the forecast accuracy in order to improve the results in next model version

• Checking forecast accuracy requires a lot of efforts especially for the regional forecasts due to their amount. However, this procedure did allow us to improve the results

• The main problem that we faced – inaccuracy of the current statistics of ROSSTAT: the data was re-estimated for a number of indicators, while in some cases the changes were of a fundamental nature (for example, an increase in the dynamics of construction output by 6 p.p.). Nevertheless, we expect it is a temporary problem caused by the changes in the statistical methods

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This presentation happened 5 September 2019, Russia, Sochi at 27th Inforum Conference.

The conference & materials: https://ecfor.ru/27th-inforum-world-conference/

Playlist with the other videos from the conference: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJBJFs8UgQgpmWWFzqw87jdwOBQXQmLfu
Inforum’s site: http://www.inforum.umd.edu/

Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, was founded nearly 50 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. It is dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment.

The host side was the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. IEF RAS specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia. The site is https://ecfor.ru.

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Notes:

Main principles of regional economic dynamics forecasting

• The macroeconomic dynamic of Russia and external economic conditions are taken into account

• The system of interregional and interindustry interactions is used

• Taking into account the specific features of regional industry

• Balancing of indicators at country level, Federal Districts and regions

Main estimated indicators

• GDP by economic activity
• GDP by expenditure (household consumption, public consumption, capital formation, net export)
• Gross output by industry (industrial economic activities)
• Personal incomes and expenditures
• Employment
• Balance of Electricity production and use
• Other indicators